Divided Views :

Observers in Mumbai are divided in their views on retail jewellery business abroad in the coming season. One view is that the impact of recession during the last season on jewellery business was considerably severe and therefore retarded jewellery sales were significantly down despite substantial discounts and other allurements offered by retailers. There is a general feeling now that recession is receding and about to end. In view of this optimism, overseas jewellery sales can be expected to be better than in the earlier season. Yet another view, however, is that not much improvement in sales, particularly of luxuries like diamond jewellery can be expected unless the unemployment rate in the US which stands around 9.7 per cent at present is seen coming down.

Recession Fallout:

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has recently stated that recession is probably over from technical perspective. However, the US economy will remain weak for some time. For the time being, growth may not be strong enough to reduce unemployment. If growth remains moderate, unemployment will be slow in coming down.

US Retail Sales :

Ofcourse overall retail sales in the USA registered some significant improvement in August 2009, but this is largely attributed to purchases of automobiles in particular in response to the US Administration’s “Cash for Clinkers” programs. However, no such program is likely from the US government for jewellery business. It would be a different thing if some major producers announce, as expected, some attractive program to promote jewellery purchases during the ensuing season.

Revival of Manufacturing :

According to sources close to the gems and jewellery industry, the manufacturing activity at the cutting centres has significantly increased of late. This is because inventories are currently down as most manufacturers had earlier slashed their production to avoid piling up of stocks and concentrated on bringing down inventories.

Arrivals of Overseas Buyers :

Some circles in the gems and jewellery industry do hope that retail sales in the ensuing Christmas season might improve at least to some extent as recession is believed to be coming to an end. It might therefore be better to be ready with polished gemstones to meet the possible sudden improvement in demand from overseas retailers. Arrivals of overseas buyers are expected to go up from October onwards. It is pointed out in this context that pre-Christmas buying season has become much shorter in recent years.

Inland Market Growing :

Meanwhile, there are some encouraging reports that the demand for diamond jewellery in the Indian market continues to show signs of improvement, and that this inland business might be growing at the rate of 15 to 20 per cent annually. Though this is a welcome development some observers are of the view that an increase in internal demand is to fill up the gap caused by the decline in export shipments.

Diamond Exports Decline :

Outflow of cut and polished diamonds in the meanwhile remains discouraging. For the first five months (April to August) of 2009-10 they totalled US$ 5105.29 million (Rs. 24786.20 crore), compared with US$ 6596.35 million (Rs. 27295.69 crore) in the same period from the same ports in the preceding year which is showing a decline of 22.6 per cent in dollar terms and 9.19 per cent in rupee value.

Gold Jewellery Upswing :

So far as gold jewellery dispatches are concerned they have totalled US$ 3883.91 million (Rs. 14001.41 crore) in the first five months of 2009-10, compared with US$ 2707.99 million (Rs. 11205.67 crore) in the same period of the earlier year showing a rise of 6.5 per cent in dollar terms and 24.95 per cent in rupees.

Diamond Rough Imports Down :

Imports of rough diamonds in the first five months of 2009-10 were lower around US$ 3085.50 million (Rs. 15257.82 crore), against US$ 4984.56 million (Rs. 20915.22 crore) indicating a decrease of 38.10 per cent in dollar value and 27.05 per cent in rupees. In terms of caratage also arrivals were down around 520.36 lakh carats, compared with 698.03 carats in the earlier comparable period.

Polished Diamond Imports :

Imports of polished diamonds during the first five months of 2009-10 totalled US$ 2928.92 million (Rs. 14483.49 crore), compared with US$ 3238.97 million (Rs. 13590.73 crore) in the same period a year ago, showing a decline of 9.57 per cent in dollar terms, but a rise of 6.57 per cent in rupees.

Bullion Buoyant :

Gold has turned buoyant in the international as well as the inland markets in view of strong investment demand supported by excess liquidity conditions in the overseas as well as the domestic market, coupled with weakness of the US currency. Physical buying of jewellery manufactured from fresh gold remains subdued as can be seen from the fact that imports of fresh gold in the first 8 months of 2009 have been just around 81.2 tonnes compared with 261 tonnes in the same period in the year ago. In the overseas markets gold touched US$ 1002.72 per oz. and silver US$ 16.64 per oz. on 14 August, 2009. On the same day, standard gold stood in the domestic market at Rs. 15785 per 10 grammes and silver at Rs. 26200 per kg. The undertone seemed strong.